Policy Making Processes in South Africa

Policy Making Processes in South Africa The National Government is accountable to the law making process regarding the rights and commitments of its citizens and delivery of services. The Constitution of South Africa provides in Section 43, three spheres of government in South Africa, namely, the National Government, Provincial Government and Local Government. In Section 40(1) of the Constitution it states that these spheres of government are distinctive, inter-related and inter-dependent. All three areas work under the Constitution as well as the laws and policies created by Parliament. Elected members sanction policies and laws as well as supervise the work of the departments. The department and public services are liable for the work delegated by government and are accountable to the Executive. In the Provincial Legislature, the Premier and Executive Council is responsible for the managerial executive and the administration is done by the Heads of Department and their staff. The local government or council are managed b y the Mayor and the Mayoral Committee and the administration is taken care of by the Municipal Manager, Heads of Department and their staff. The law making process The National Legislature is the authority that passes new laws, amend existing laws or repeal old laws. This same power exists for provincial legislatures in making provincial laws and municipal laws in respect of municipal by –laws. The process is as follow: Firstly, a draft bill is drawn up by the MEC, MPL or the standing committee. This is then published in the provincial gazette as well as other papers to notify the public. The public has 14 days to respond to the proposed drat. If there were any public comment, the department will make the changes. Secondly, the speaker will introduce the proposed Bill to the legislature. Thirdly, the legislature committee debates the bill. Public hearings can be hold and if there are any changes to the draft, it is referred back to the legislature. Fourthly, the Legislature debates the bill and a vote is then passed. The Bill is passed once a majority vote is in favour. If not, the Bill is rejected. Fifthly, the Premier of the Province signs the Bill into an Act. Lastly, the Act is published in the Provincial Government Gazette. The Role of the NCOP When a Bill is passed by the National Assembly it is given a number and referred to the National Council of Provinces (NCOP). The Bill is subject to the amendment proposed or rejected by the Council. The NCOP first needs to distinguished if the Bill contains issues that affects provinces (Section 76 Bill) or contains issues that do not affect the provinces (Section 75 Bill). If the Bill contains issues affecting provinces (Section 76 Bill) Members of the Select Committee approach their own provinces to review the Bill. Each provincial legislature gives a provincial mandate to make changes or leave it as it stands. Provincial representatives report back to the NCOP on their provincial decision. Then the selected committee negotiates the final version of the Bill, to report their decision or suggested changes to the NCOP. The NCOP considers the report, vote on the Bill and each province has a vote. It there are any proposed changes to the Bill, the NCOP refers it back to the National Assembly for approval. If the Bill contains issues that do not affect the provinces (Section 75 Bill) The NCOP considers the Bill, can either accept, reject or propose changes by the Select Committee. Each member of the NCOP votes according to their party decision. If the NCOP makes any changes to the Bill, it is then referred back again to the National Assembly for approval. If there are still differences in the agreement of the Bill, it can follow a mediation process. If this fails, the National Assembly can refer the Bill (Section 76 Bill) to the president to obtain a two thirds majority. If this does not happen the Bill falls away Once both houses accepts the final version of the Bill, it is then send to the President to be signed into an Act and law and then published in the Gazette. Once a law has been passed by the National Parliament it is up to the Provincial and Local Government on the implementation thereof The Role, Powers and Function of the Local Government in law-making According to Section 156(2) of the Constitution: â€Å"A municipality may make and administer by-laws for the effective administration of the matters which it has the right to administer†. The elected members to the municipality decide on the policies and by-laws for their area that needs to be approved and executed by law. The executive committee of the local council is accountable to present the by-laws. A by-law can only be passed if a majority vote in the municipal council was achieved, all members received reasonable notice and it was published in to elicit public comment. It must be understandable to the public. A by-law can only be imposed if it was published in the provincial gazette. Municipalities can prepare by-laws on matters that refer to Schedule 4B and Schedule 5B of the Constitution which gives Local Government the power to create and pass laws. Municipalities can also make laws on issues allocated by the National or Provincial Government. These issues depend on the category of the municipality to make these by-laws. A category ‘A’ municipality is referred to as a metropolitan municipality, a category ‘B† municipality is identified as a local municipality and a category ‘C’ is known as a district municipality. A metropolitan municipality makes by-laws on all affairs as listed per Schedule 4B and 5B of the Constitution and has the ability to make by-laws delegated by the Provincial or National Government. These affairs include by-laws affecting for example, air pollution, building regulations, local tourism and municipal planning, to name a few. These affairs are identified as Schedule 4B affairs. By-laws with regards to Schedule 5B is affairs that include display of billboards, keeping of cemeteries, licensing of dogs, markets and local abattoirs, to name a few. Local and district municipalities share the power to create by-laws. This has been controlled by the Municipal Structures Act. Section 84(1) of the Municipal Structures Act, states the powers and functions of the district municipality and obtained from Schedule 4B and Schedule 5B of the Constitution. According to Section 84(2) of the Municipal Structures Act, the local municipality has authority over all other local government matters not mentioned in section 84(1) in its jurisdiction. Examples are for instance on air pollution which is a Schedule 4B competency. A district municipality under section 84(1) has no power but the local municipality under section 84(2) has full power in the area of jurisdiction. The district municipality has no powers under Section 84(1) with regards to beaches and amusement facilities under Schedule 5B, but the local municipality under section 84(2) has full powers in the area of jurisdiction. THE ROLE, POWERS AND FUNCTION OF THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT IN LAW MAKING All nine provinces have their own legislature ranging from 30 up to 80 members depending on the number of votes received by the political party. The provincial legislature is accountable for making and passing laws for its province. The provincial government tables provincial Bills under Schedule 5B of the Constitution. These Bills must be accepted by the executive council and then published in the Provincial Gazette for public commentary. The provincial laws requires two thirds majority of the vote and are only operative in that specific province. An example is the ban on cell phones while driving in the Western Cape. A Bill is presented by the Speaker of the provincial legislature. The Standing Committee can invite public hearing and after consultation send a report to the provincial legislature. A vote is taken after the debate and the legislation is passed when a majority vote has reached. The Premier of the province has to sign the Bill into law. The Act then gets published and takes effect on the determined date. Provincial laws can be changed or interceded by Parliament if they challenge the interest of national or other provincial governments. According to the Constitution, provinces can have legislative and executive powers simultaneously with the national government over areas such as agriculture, cultural affairs, environmental issue, health services etc. Also, provinces has absolute proficiency over areas such as ambulance services, liquor licenses, provincial roads, planning and cultural matters

Poseidon Essay

God of the sea, protector of all waters. Poseidon is the brother of Zeus. After the overthrow of their Father Cronus he drew lots with Zeus and Hades, another brother, for shares of the world. His prize was to become lord of the sea. He was widely worshiped by seamen. He married Amphitrite, a granddaughter of the Titan Oceanus.At one point he desired Demeter. To put him off Demeter asked him to make the most beautiful animal that the world had ever seen. So to impress her Poseidon created the first horse. In some accounts his first attempts were unsuccessful and created a variety of other animals in his quest. By the time the horse was created his passion for Demeter had cooled. His weapon is a trident, which can shake the earth, and shatter any object. He is second only to Zeus in power amongst the gods. He has a difficult quarrelsome personality. He was greedy. He had a series of disputes with other gods when he tried to take over their cities. Poseidon was the second son of Cronus and Rhea. In most accounts he is swallowed by Cronus at birth but later saved, with his other brothers and sisters, by Zeus. However in some versions of the story, he, like his brother Zeus, did not share the fate of his other brother and sisters who were eaten by Cronus. He was saved by his mother Rhea, who concealed him among a flock of lambs and pretended to have given birth to a colt, which she gave to Cronus to devour.[3] According to John Tzetzes[23] the kourotrophos, or nurse of Poseidon was Arne, who denied knowing where he was, when Cronus came searching; according to Diodorus Siculus[24] Poseidon was raised by the Telchines on Rhodes, just as Zeus was raised by the Korybantes on Crete. According to a single reference in the Iliad, when the world was divided by lot in three, Zeus received the sky, Hades the underworld and Poseidon the sea. In the Odyssey (v.398), Poseidon has a home in Aegae. The foundation of Athens Athena became the patron goddess of the city of Athens after a competition  with Poseidon. Yet Poseidon remained a numinous presence on the Acropolis in the form of his surrogate, Erechtheus.[2] At the dissolution festival at the end of the year in the Athenian calendar, the Skira, the priests of Athena and the priest of Poseidon would process under canopies to Eleusis.[25] They agreed that each would give the Athenians one gift and the Athenians would choose whichever gift they preferred. Poseidon struck the ground with his trident and a spring sprang up; the water was salty and not very useful,[26] whereas Athena offered them an olive tree. Temple of Poseidon at Cape Sounion, ca 440 BC The Athenians or their king, Cecrops, accepted the olive tree and along with it Athena as their patron, for the olive tree brought wood, oil and food. After the fight, infuriated at his loss, Poseidon sent a monstrous flood to the Attic Plain, to punish the Athenians for not choosing him. The depression made by Poseidon’s trident and filled with salt water was surrounded by the northern hall of the Erechtheum, remaining open to the air. â€Å"In cult, Poseidon was identified with Erechtheus,† Walter Burkert noted; â€Å"the myth turns this into a temporal-causal sequence: in his anger at losing, Poseidon led his son Eumolpus against Athens and killed Erectheus.†[27] The contest of Athena and Poseidon was the subject of the reliefs on the western pediment of the Parthenon, the first sight that greeted the arriving visitor. This myth is construed by Robert Graves and others as reflecting a clash between the inhabitants during Mycenaean times and newer immigrants. It is interesting to note that Athens at its height was a significant sea power, at one point defeating the Persian fleet at Salamis Island in a sea battle. The walls of Troy Poseidon and Apollo, having offended Zeus by their rebellion in Hera’s scheme, were temporarily stripped of their divine authority and sent to serve King Laomedon of Troy. He had them build huge walls around the city and promised to reward them well, a promise he then refused to fulfill. In  vengeance, before the Trojan War, Poseidon sent a sea monster to attack Troy. The monster was later killed by Heracles. Consorts and children Poseidon on an Attic kalyx krater (detail), first half of the 5th century BC. Poseidon was said to have had many lovers of both sexes (see expandable list below). His consort was Amphitrite, a nymph and ancient sea-goddess, daughter of Nereus and Doris. Poseidon was the father of many heroes. He is thought to have fathered the famed Theseus. A mortal woman named Tyro was married to Cretheus (with whom she had one son, Aeson) but loved Enipeus, a river god. She pursued Enipeus, who refused her advances. One day, Poseidon, filled with lust for Tyro, disguised himself as Enipeus, and from their union were born the heroes Pelias and Neleus, twin boys. Poseidon also had an affair with Alope, his granddaughter through Cercyon, his son and King of Eleusis, begetting the Attic hero Hippothoon. Cercyon had his daughter buried alive but Poseidon turned her into the spring, Alope, near Eleusis. Poseidon rescued Amymone from a lecherous satyr and then fathered a child, Nauplius, by her. After having raped Caeneus, Poseidon fulfilled her request and changed her into a male warrior. A mortal woman named Cleito once lived on an isolated island; Poseidon fell in love with the human mortal and created a dwelling sanctuary at the top of a hill near the middle of the island and surrounded the dwelling with rings of water and land to protect her. She gave birth to five sets of twin boys(the firstborn who being named Atlas) became the first rulers of Atlantis.[28][5][6][7] Not all of Poseidon’s children were human. In an archaic myth, Poseidon once pursued Demeter. She spurned his advances, turning herself into a mare so that she could hide in a herd of horses; he saw through the deception and became a stallion and captured her. Their child was a horse, Arion, which was capable of human speech. Poseidon also had sexual intercourse with Medusa on the floor of a temple to Athena.[29] Medusa was then changed into a monster by Athena. When she was later beheaded by the hero Perseus, Chrysaor and Pegasus emerged from her neck. There is also Triton (the merman), Polyphemus (the cyclops) and, finally, Alebion and Bergion and Otos and Ephialtae (the giants).[29]

Konnichiwa Means Good Afternoon in Japanese

If you want to greet someone in Japanese by saying good afternoon or good day, the word you want to use is Konnichiwa.   Konnichiwa is actually a shortened version of a full greeting. Over time, a more slang version of the term evolved in the Japanese language. â€Å"Konnichiwa was once the beginning of a sentence that went, â€Å"konnichi wa gokiken ikaga desu ka?,†Ã‚  or â€Å"How are you feeling today?† (ä »Å Ã¦â€" ¥Ã£  ¯Ã£ â€Ã¦ ©Å¸Ã¥ «Å'㠁„㠁‹ã Å'㠁 §Ã£ â„¢Ã£ â€¹ Writing Rules for Konnichiwa There is a rule for writing hiragana wa and ha. When wa is used as a particle, it is written in hiragana as ha. Konnichiwa is now a fixed greeting. However, in the old days it was a part of sentence, such as Today is ~ (Konnichi wa ~) and wa functioned as a particle. Thats why it is still written in hiragana as ha. The greeting can be changed to good evening, with, â€Å"Konbanwaâ€Å" where â€Å"this evening† is substituted for the word today. (ä »Å Ã¦â„¢ ©Ã£  ¯Ã£ â€Ã¦ ©Å¸Ã¥ «Å'㠁„㠁‹ã Å'㠁 §Ã£ â„¢Ã£ â€¹) Audio File: Listen to the audio file for Konnichiwa. Japanese Characters for Konnichiwa: 㠁“ん㠁 «Ã£  ¡Ã£  ¯Ã£â‚¬â€š More Japanese Greetings: Previous wordNext wordGreetings ArchiveSimple Japanese Phrases Sources: Rocket News 24, http://en.rocketnews24.com/2014/04/08/what-does-konichiwa-really-mean-understanding-japanese-greetings/

Influence Of Terror On Pakistan Stock Market Returns - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 10 Words: 2917 Downloads: 7 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Research paper Did you like this example? Abstract This paper examines the influence of political instability and terror on Pakistan stock market returns between 1997 and 2010. The study constructs three variables that quantify political instability and terror and examine the effect on country stock return. This study seeks to apply the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to assess the impact of these variables on stock market returns and volatility using daily time series data for KSE. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Influence Of Terror On Pakistan Stock Market Returns" essay for you Create order Results for KSE showed strong support for the hypothesis that bad news exerts more adverse effect on stock market volatility than good news of the same magnitude. Furthermore, terror and regime have significant negative impact while war has positive but insignificant effect on stock market volatility. JEL Classification: O40, C32. Keywords: Terror, Regime, political instability, growth, ARCH/GARCH. Introduction Many people agree that stock prices sometimes behave in bizarre ways. Markets are pretty tough and quite difficult. In the world of todays no one can negate the importance of stock markets. Stock market acts as a barometer for any countrys economy. In todays information-oriented world, news travels very fast and contagion can spread quickly and capital markets become more flexible and are absorb shocks brought on different news such as terrorism, political instability etc. Stock market of Pakistan is going through quite rough patch from many years. The change of political government and later on the terrorists attacks have badly affected the stock market and make the Pakistan Stock Market unreliable place for investment. As by seeing the overall scenario of Pakistans stock market during that time period it was not difficult for prices to follow certain patterns that support the rejection of Random Walk Hypothesis. This paper examines the impact of change in government, war and t error on economic growth in the Pakistan. Pakistan is one of those episodic-democratic countries who are facing continuous upheavals and socio-political disruptions since their inception. Military interventions could be witnessed in the political history of Pakistan. More over intervallic wars with India, strikes, antigovernment demonstrations and most importantly the ongoing war on terror have popped Pakistan to prominence on the socio-political platform. Such sociopolitical flux, terrorist attacks and other disruptions can have serious implications for stock price movement because stock prices reflect investors expectations about the future and these stock price movements on aggregate can generate a surged wave of activity. There has been an extensive work on study of stock market returns and volatility with respect to the fundamental variables and the macroeconomic variables but a diminutive work has been done so far to study the impact of socio-political factors on the stock market volatility in Pakistan. The existing literature on impact of socio-political factors on stock returns volatility is quite inadequate especially if we talk in context of Pakistani market. Masood Sergi (2008) analyzed Pakistans political risks and events that have affected the Pakistani stock market since its independence but their study chiefly covers the political events. Terrorism and strikes which have recently become the matters of intense interest and the source of unrest in the economy are the missing part there. The Karachi stock market is rapidly converting into a volatile market. If we see figure below it showed that there are high volatility during 1997 to 2010. This cannot be viewed as a positive sign for this emerging markets like Stock market of Pakistan. Though heavy fluctuations in stock prices are not an unusual phenomena and it has been observed at almost all big and small exchanges of the world. But focusing on the reasons for such fluctuations is instruc tive and likely to have important policy implications. The efficient market hypothesis argued that changes in stock prices are mainly dependent on the arrival of information regarding the expected returns from the stock and risk associated with that stock. (See Figure 1.1) So the purpose of our study is to examine empirically the impact of socio-political instability on Pakistani stock market. This study examines the three factors and their impact on the Pakistani stock market; the political instability due to military interventions, 1999 Kargil war, and terrorism. Literature Review A number of theoretical and empirical articles argue that these factors hinder economic growth of a country. Cutler, Poterba and Summers (1989) claimed that the sock prices move in response to the information other than about the fundamental values. They estimate the fraction of stock returns that can be accredited to various kinds of economic and non-economic events including assassinations of important political or national figures, war, invasions, raids and major policy change but their findings suggests a very small effect of non-economic news on the share price. Most of the studies have found a significant impact of political news or events on the stock market behavior. Chan Wei (1996) studied the impact of political news on the stock market volatility in Hong Kong and using GARCH-M model they found the strong evidence of the impact of political news on stock market volatility inferring that unfavorable political news is correlated to negative returns for the Hang Seng Ind ex and vice versa. Mei Guo (1999) examined the impact of political insecurity on the financial crises in emerging markets and they observe that market volatility increased during political election and transition periods and political uncertainty could be a major contributory factor to financial crisis. Similarly Kim Mei (2001) infered through empirical analysis using GARCH(1,1) filter that the political risk affect the stock market volatility but this impact of political events or news is asymmetric, with bad news having a greater influence on volatility relative to good news. However Voth (2001) have argued that the impact of political factors in studies on German market has been over stated. He argued that the majority of events escalating political uncertainty had a minute or no effect on the value of German assets and the volatility of their returns. Instead, it was inflation that is mainly responsible for most of the variability in stock returns. He suggests that there is no direct linkage between the political factors and the stock market, however through channel it impacts. But Voth (2002) in a panel study of a set of 10 countries using panel regression confess that during great depression political risks changed dramatically over the period, and are adequate to account for a large part of the boost in stock price volatility. Beaulieu, Cosset Essaddam (2002) examined the impact of political risk in Canada on the volatility of stock returns, covering important political events in the country. Their study suggested that political news performs a significant role in the volatility of stock returns. Moreover the volatility of stock returns also depends on the degree of how much a firm is exposed to political risk i.e. the structure of its assets and the level to which there is foreign involvement. Kutan Perez (2002)  also found a significant impact of social and political factors on stock return volatility in their study conducted on Colom bian stock market. Bautista (2003) applied Regime-switching-ARCH regression on Philippine stock returns to estimate its conditional variance and the estimated volatility was then related to major political and economic events. Their study revealed that the Philippine stock market is sensitive to radical changes in the political situation. Moreover the series of military takeover attempts during late 1980s in Philippines lead to hefty fluctuations in stock market index. Masood Sergi (2008) analyzed political risks and events that have affected the Pakistans stock markets since its foundation. They have found that Pakistans political risk carries a significant risk premium of between 7.5% and 12%. They made forecasts using Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and found that there is relatively high probability of occurrence of events with an average arrival rate of approximately 1.5 events per year. Many others also wrote that politic al instability warped the future path of investment decisions (Calvo and Drazen (1997), lessened public investment leading to a shift of government budgets from capital spending to government consumption (Darby, Li and Muscatelli (1998), and makes governments less inclined to make improvements to the legal system (Svensson (1993) Wars and unrest at the borders creates instability and panic among the investors that could affect the stock market movement at large. The affect of war has been analyzed in many studies including Cutler, Poterba and Summers (1989), Aggarwal, Incaln Leal (1999) and in Pakistan Masood Sergi (2008). Aggarwal, Incaln Leal (1999) examined the sort of events that cause large swings in volatility of emerging stock markets. For this purpose they examine various social, political and economic events both at global and domestic level to find out their explanatory power in context of the returns volatility in the emerging markets including the impact of gulf war. Though at small scale but the impact of gulf war was felt in those emerging markets. Similarly Masood Sergi (2008) found that among other factors that they studied, wars with India, 1948, 1965, 1971 and 1999 kargil war negatively influenced the Pakistani stock market. Evia et al. (2008) examined the affect of socio-political conflict in Bolivia on economic performance. Factors studied widespread during the conflicts as strikes, demonstrations, road blockades, and conventional rent-seeking. Their results showed that economic growth due to external factors is positively related to conflict while growth due to productive investment is negatively related to conflict. Terrorism is another as put that has been studied in relation to economic activity. Many studied in this distance; produced conflicting results as Becker and Murphy (2001) argue that economic performance are not much affected, because terrorist attacks usually devastate only a small portion of the overall stock of capital in a country. By contrast, Abadie and Gardeazabal (2005) repeated that terrorism shape overall economic risk in a country and lead to the economic shakiness in the country. They also conclude their study that higher level of terrorism risks results into the lower levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). Almost all studies on terrorism and its influence on stock prices limited to only on a single or few events, such as the 11 September 2001 attacks, as considered by Hon et al. (2004) Chen and Siems (2003) study. Chen Siems (2003), used event study methodology to capture the aftermath of terrorism on global capital markets. They studied on the reaction of U.S. capital markets in response to terrorist attacks. Their results showed that capital markets of US are more resilient flexible than in the past and recover quicker from terrorist attacks than other global capital markets. Their study suggests this increased market resilience to be partially explained by a stab le financial sector in US that provides adequate liquidity to support market stability and reduce the spread panic. Methodology and Data Description Stock index data is taken from Karachi Stock Exchange, Yahoo Finance. This is a well known and reliable source of business information in Pakistan. The daily closing value of KSE-100 index is used for calculating the daily returns. The continuously compounded annual rate of return is used to measure the returns for the specific period as; Rt = ln (Pt / Pt-1) The closing prices of KSE-100 index for Karachi Stock Exchange are taken for the period July 2, 1997 to Oct 13, 2010. Our proxies are TERROR, a dummy variable of terrorist incidents during this period; REGIME, a dummy variable for government changes from fully democratic government to Marshal Law or democratic under such condition; a dummy variable for the period of the Kargal War in 1999. We applied regression model and Arch/Garch technique to capture the results. ARCH/GARCH Study Models This section presents the methodology of the paper. Daily data for Karachi stock markets were obtained from Yahoo finance and data for terror, kargal war and regime were obtained from South East Asia Terrorism Portal, and Different News Paper of Pakistan. Study apply ARCH/GARCH tools to see the long term relationship of these variable taking stock return as dependent variable and terror, regime and kargal war as independent variables. As aggregate uncertainty may be a function of political instability, we proceed to model uncertainty directly. It is natural to look at the conditional variance of output. Thus, we examine GARCH processes, in a more general framework than in the previous section. The model estimated here is a GARCH (1,1) process. Engle (1982) argue that in high frequency data large and small disturbance errors appear in group therefore error term variances can be shown as a function of their lagged values. He calls it Autoregressive conditional Heteroskedasticity ( ARCH). As an investor or policy maker, we might be interested in investigating the returns and variance financial assets over observable period of time (conditional) rather than long run estimate of variance (unconditional). Engle (1982) shows that it is possible to describe the conditional mean and conditional variance of a financial asset using information set of previous period; Where is the return of financial asset in time t conditional on the information set at time t-1. E represents the expected value in statistics. Consider the simple model Where Where the rate of is return and are the regression parameters. A typical ARCH model can be written as follows: Conditional Mean Equation; Error Decomposition OR where à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"v is the part of variance which is homoskedastic and is the conditional variance which is Heteroskedasticity. This conditional variance can be shown as ARCH Conditional variance Equation, i.e. where and are non negative. Eng le (1982) has also derived a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) based principle to test the hypothesis of. Another useful variant of ARCH methodology, proposed by Bollerslev (1986) is the generalized ARCH or GARCH model. Bollerslev (1986) argues that conditional variance in financial series is not only the function of its lagged error term but also the function of its lagged conditional variances. Therefore, GARCH (1, 1) process would be So GARCH model helps to explain the conditional variance with the help of past squared error term and conditional variance lag value. Which also means that conditional variance at timeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"t would be function of long run variances and also variances conditional on past information set (short run) or observed shocks i.e. . Testing for ARCH/GARCH effects: Before estimating Arch/Garch techniques, it is first important to check for possible presence of Arch effect in order to know which model is requires the ARCH estimation instead of OLS (Ordinary Least Squire). The presence of ARCH effects in a regression model does not invalidate OLS estimation. However it implies that there is more efficient nonlinear estimator than OLS. (See Table 1.1) Obs*R-Squared is 147.26 and has a probability limit of 0.000. This clearly suggested that ARCH effect is present and presence of Heteroskedasticity suggested that ARCH/GARCH is appropriate model for this type of time series data. So we can apply ARCH/GARCH model on this data instead of ordinary least squire regression. Result of GARCH effects: The results of GARCH are presented in Table 1.3. The first column presents the regression results when we include as independent variables dummy values of the regime, terror, and war. In most of the cases, the variables enter with the anticipated signs, but not all of them are consistently significant at the 0.05 level. We can see an evidence of significant negative impact of terror, regime that show due to bomb blast in Pakistan and change in government negatively impact the country stock return in long run while insignificant positive impact of war on the country stock return. The results can further explained that stock return volatility every day is explained by approximately 71% of the previous months return volatility for Karachi stock exchange. This is significant for KSE returns. The coefficient of return innovation are statistically significant for market implying that new information arrival into the markets has significant impact on predicting next days stock market v olatility. Because, the constant term in the variance equation for KSE is significant. The results of GARCH (1,1) are presented in Table 1.3 (Table 1.2) The model can be written as; Mean Equation: = 0.001188+ 0.064048* R_KSE(-1) Variance Equation: GARCH = 4.01E-05 + 0.20721*ARCH+ 0.713458 GARCH(-1) 1.21E-05*Terror + 1.93E-05*War -1.48E-05*Regime The persistence parameter for KSE Durbin-Watson stat = 1.943, which is 1. This show a very explosive volatility in KSE returns. It also demonstrates the capability of past volatility to explain current volatility (Engle and Bollerslev, 1986) and because it is very high, the rate at which it diminishes is rather very slowly. For ACRH/GARCH, conditional standard deviation and conditional varience graph were as shown in figure 1.2 and 1.3; The GARCH coefficient is both statistically significant and conforms to expectation. This implies that past variances exert significantly positive effect on stock return volatility in KSE. On the basis of these results, it is evident that there is significant time varying volatility in Pakistan stock market returns during the sample periods. Conclusions and Recommendations In this paper, we have estimated a nonlinear GARCH model for daily stock returns volatility and terror, Kargal war and regime in Pakistan. Data for the estimation of GARCH (1,1) models was obtained from Yahoo finance and South Asia Terror Portal and news paper of Pakistan. The asymmetric effect of terror, war and regime on stock returns and volatility was investigated. Preliminary investigation into the nature of the data reveals that study had to employ ARCH/GARCH techniques for data analysis. Firstly, results show evidence of time varying volatility in stock market returns across the market and from the asymmetric model, results indicate that bad news has larger impact on stock volatility than good news in the KSE. The result for KSE showed that terror and regime has negativity impact on returns of KSE while war has positively effect, it may be due to short term period of the war. All three variable are significantly have their impact on the returns.